Nice post. I've been a big fan of Rolo for awhile now, but his approach has become, for lack of a better phrase, much more unhinged than it was previously (when his beratement of others was halfway tongue-in-cheek). Hopefully he will realize this and calm down.
Also, while impressed with his focus on Prighozin and Wagner these past months which culminated in this aborted march on Moscow, I have been less than impressed with Rolo's logic the last couple of days where he's called Prighozin's actions - where he fled to Belarus and most of Wagner is being absorbed into the MoD - a "win". I am careful and hesitant about offering hot-takes on Russia as information is second and third-hand, not being a native speaker, but at least at this moment it does not seem like a "win". It would be like if Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon, said "oops sorry guys my bad", and then left his troops and fled to Persia. Apparently Shoigu isn't even being forced out and Prighozin is still being criminally investigated; I would not be surprised if he is ultimately defenstrated.
Thanks! Yes it's been strange watching Rolo's progression, maybe he's started getting a lot more views recently and a lot more comments, I have no idea. Are you a paid sub? If so, are his paid posts more of the same?
Ultimately all of us are just commenting on what we understand to be happening so it doesn't really matter, but I got sick of reading these posts where the writer seemed to be telling me he thinks I'm an idiot! Like... I can do other things with my time ya know
Wagner said the ammunition was suffering corrupt diversion. I believe it. Having your supplies stolen while fighting and dying would anger anyone. However marching on Moscow has got to be one of the bonehead moves of all time. These Wagner guys have got way more yarbles than marbles.
I feel certain it was "Belarus or death." Russia would have called in an air strike and more. I immediately felt certain that any deal would not hold up. There's always an excuse to wiggle out of a deal. The hammer will come down. It might be preceded by a campaign of character assassination, but I say the end will arrive quickly and soon. If no one was harmed there might be some mercy, maybe. If anyone was killed it's curtains for management and not much better for the soldiers.
As for a coup, that would be superultrabonehead. That's far beyond belief.
So, what was the GOAT of bonehead moves? When the Caliphate executed Genghiz Khan's emissaries. Genghiz retaliated by destroying the Caliphate, which has yet again to rise.
Did other people in Wagner publicly complain about the ammo shortage, or was it just Prigozhin? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought it was just Prigozhin. He's not a military commander, so it's kind of inappropriate for him to be sticking his oar in like that, just like it was for him to share video of dead Wagner soldiers.
The thing about the supposed ammo shortage is that the MoD was clearly giving them some ammo - and look what they ended up doing with it. There are rumblings from the FSB that Prigozhin was in contact with foreign intelligence services, who have apparently been talking about a Wagner rebellion for a couple of months now. Whether he was in contact with foreign entities or not, what he did has completely destroyed any argument for PMCs having autonomy from the MoD, and COMPLETELY destroyed any case for the MoD supplying them with ammunition while they're not under their control!
I have no idea if it was a psyop (either Russian or western) but the end result of it has been to make Shoigu look absolutely right in demanding that PMCs sign contracts with the MoD. The Chechens did it without a fuss. Prigozhin was prepared to put his name and face to this weird charade, so you have to wonder what outcome he thought he was going to get, and just how in the hell he thought it was all going to play out. I don't think you should rule out that he's just egotistical and not that smart.
I've seen some people on Telegram saying that there are videos of lots of dead Wagner soldiers and that Wagner shot down the Russian aircraft in self-defence, but these same people didn't share those videos, so I assume that's baloney. Really seems like Russian airmen were the only ones who died, so Prigozhin should count himself very lucky he was allowed to leave to Belarus and not arrested for treason.
Nice post. I've been a big fan of Rolo for awhile now, but his approach has become, for lack of a better phrase, much more unhinged than it was previously (when his beratement of others was halfway tongue-in-cheek). Hopefully he will realize this and calm down.
Also, while impressed with his focus on Prighozin and Wagner these past months which culminated in this aborted march on Moscow, I have been less than impressed with Rolo's logic the last couple of days where he's called Prighozin's actions - where he fled to Belarus and most of Wagner is being absorbed into the MoD - a "win". I am careful and hesitant about offering hot-takes on Russia as information is second and third-hand, not being a native speaker, but at least at this moment it does not seem like a "win". It would be like if Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon, said "oops sorry guys my bad", and then left his troops and fled to Persia. Apparently Shoigu isn't even being forced out and Prighozin is still being criminally investigated; I would not be surprised if he is ultimately defenstrated.
Thanks! Yes it's been strange watching Rolo's progression, maybe he's started getting a lot more views recently and a lot more comments, I have no idea. Are you a paid sub? If so, are his paid posts more of the same?
Ultimately all of us are just commenting on what we understand to be happening so it doesn't really matter, but I got sick of reading these posts where the writer seemed to be telling me he thinks I'm an idiot! Like... I can do other things with my time ya know
Wagner said the ammunition was suffering corrupt diversion. I believe it. Having your supplies stolen while fighting and dying would anger anyone. However marching on Moscow has got to be one of the bonehead moves of all time. These Wagner guys have got way more yarbles than marbles.
I feel certain it was "Belarus or death." Russia would have called in an air strike and more. I immediately felt certain that any deal would not hold up. There's always an excuse to wiggle out of a deal. The hammer will come down. It might be preceded by a campaign of character assassination, but I say the end will arrive quickly and soon. If no one was harmed there might be some mercy, maybe. If anyone was killed it's curtains for management and not much better for the soldiers.
As for a coup, that would be superultrabonehead. That's far beyond belief.
So, what was the GOAT of bonehead moves? When the Caliphate executed Genghiz Khan's emissaries. Genghiz retaliated by destroying the Caliphate, which has yet again to rise.
Did other people in Wagner publicly complain about the ammo shortage, or was it just Prigozhin? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought it was just Prigozhin. He's not a military commander, so it's kind of inappropriate for him to be sticking his oar in like that, just like it was for him to share video of dead Wagner soldiers.
The thing about the supposed ammo shortage is that the MoD was clearly giving them some ammo - and look what they ended up doing with it. There are rumblings from the FSB that Prigozhin was in contact with foreign intelligence services, who have apparently been talking about a Wagner rebellion for a couple of months now. Whether he was in contact with foreign entities or not, what he did has completely destroyed any argument for PMCs having autonomy from the MoD, and COMPLETELY destroyed any case for the MoD supplying them with ammunition while they're not under their control!
I have no idea if it was a psyop (either Russian or western) but the end result of it has been to make Shoigu look absolutely right in demanding that PMCs sign contracts with the MoD. The Chechens did it without a fuss. Prigozhin was prepared to put his name and face to this weird charade, so you have to wonder what outcome he thought he was going to get, and just how in the hell he thought it was all going to play out. I don't think you should rule out that he's just egotistical and not that smart.
I've seen some people on Telegram saying that there are videos of lots of dead Wagner soldiers and that Wagner shot down the Russian aircraft in self-defence, but these same people didn't share those videos, so I assume that's baloney. Really seems like Russian airmen were the only ones who died, so Prigozhin should count himself very lucky he was allowed to leave to Belarus and not arrested for treason.